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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion following the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday saw its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The move to assault another state and abduct its leader – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may regret it if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.