A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
