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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

However the current race is profoundly different. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and recent also-rans improving collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still