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Preamble

The inherent challenges of tournament pool play often result in at this point of the ATP World Tour Finals fans frequently find themselves puzzled, searching around for a mathematical tool and trying to work out the complex permutations of qualification. But this evening's contest between Alexander Zverev and Auger-Aliassime, thankfully, is straightforward. It’s a straight shootout: the winner secures a semi-final battle against Carlos Alcaraz at this championship finale; the loser heads out.

The German is the frontrunner for this: the third-ranked player is the more experienced competitor, has been the champion at this tournament on two prior occasions and holds the advantage in their personal record with six victories against three defeats, winning both the games they've played on an indoor hard court.

However … this particular court on which Felix has secured most of his championships, he is in great form after his impressive recovery against Ben Shelton on midweek and he eliminated the German in the US Open early stage in late summer. Additionally, the court pace is quicker in the host city than at the US Open venue, which provides an additional advantage in Auger-Aliassime's benefit.

If the German player is reserved, similar to his performance against the Italian, and the Canadian presses the European player with his effective service game and confident shots, there is a strong chance the young Canadian – the earlier standout who was once in line ahead of the younger champions to take over from the legendary trio – who obtains the questionable privilege of competing with the global leader the next day.

Action commences: at about 8.30pm local time, 7.30pm GMT.